Executive Overview
Which flights are most likely to be delayed, why, and what's the impact — at a glance
544,003 flights · Jan 1–31, 2026 · 13 carriers
Total Flights
544,003
Jan 2026
Airlines
13
Mainline + regional
Airports Served
342
Origin + destination
Active Routes
5,812
Unique O–D pairs
On-Time Performance
75.3%
Arrivals within 15 min
Delayed Flights (>15m)
19.8%
107,475 flights
Cancelled
25,635
4.7% of schedule
Diverted
1,146
0.21% of schedule
Avg Departure Delay
13.1 min
Fleet-wide mean
Avg Arrival Delay
6.4 min
Fleet-wide mean
Total Delay Minutes
8.69M
Departure delay, min
Avg Taxi-Out
19.4 min
Gate to wheels-up
Avg Taxi-In
8.8 min
Touchdown to gate
Flights Delayed >15m
107,475
Arrival-side threshold

Daily Flight Volume & Delay Trend

Scheduled volume vs. average departure delay across January 2026

Delay Status Breakdown

Share of all scheduled flights

Departure vs Arrival Delay by Airline

Average minutes, top 8 carriers by volume

Delay Cause Breakdown

Total delay-minutes attributed by cause (delayed flights only)

Top 10 Airlines by Flight Volume

Ranked by scheduled departures in January 2026

◈ Executive Insights

  • On-time performance sits at 75.3%, meaning roughly 1 in 5 flights arrives more than 15 minutes late — in line with typical U.S. domestic winter operations.
  • Late Aircraft Delay and Carrier Delay are the two largest controllable causes, together accounting for the majority of attributed delay-minutes — pointing to turnaround efficiency and crew/maintenance scheduling as the highest-leverage fix.
  • Cancellations (4.7%) are notably elevated for a single month, consistent with winter weather disruption; this warrants a dedicated contingency review (see Page 5).
  • Average taxi-out (19.4 min) is more than double taxi-in (8.8 min), suggesting departure-side congestion — runway queuing or gate-hold practices — is a bigger lever than arrival-side flow.
  • Southwest, Delta and American operate the largest schedules and therefore disproportionately influence system-wide OTP; small percentage-point gains at these three carriers move the needle furthest.
Flight Delay Risk Intelligence
Where delay risk concentrates — by hour, day, distribution and severity
107,475 flights >15 min late
Delay Rate >15min
19.76%
Of all flights
Median Departure Delay
-2 min
Most flights depart early/on-time
Worst Single Delay
1,000+ min
Extreme tail event
Peak Risk Hour
18:00–19:00
Evening congestion window

Delay Trend by Hour of Day

Average departure delay & % flights delayed, by scheduled departure hour

Delay Trend by Day of Week

1=Monday … 7=Sunday

Departure Time Block Heat Strip

% of flights delayed >15min by scheduled departure window — darker = riskier

Delay Probability Matrix

Day of week × delay rate, sized by flight volume

▲ Risk Insights

  • Delay risk builds through the day and peaks in the evening (17:00–20:00 block), a classic cascading-delay pattern: aircraft running late in the morning stay late for every subsequent leg.
  • Early morning departures (05:00–07:00) are consistently the most reliable window — aircraft haven't yet accumulated network delay, making this the safest slot for time-critical travel.
  • Delay rate varies less by day-of-week than by hour-of-day, indicating that schedule density and turnaround buffers matter more than which day a flight operates.
  • Recommendation: build larger schedule buffers into evening-block flights, and prioritize on-time performance monitoring most heavily after 15:00.
Airline Performance Intelligence
Ranking carriers on reliability, cancellations and diversions
13 operating carriers

On-Time % by Airline

Ranked best → worst, arrivals within 15 minutes

Flight Volume Share

Treemap-style share of total schedule

Cancellation Rate vs Diversion Rate

% of each carrier's schedule, bubble sized by flight volume

Airline Scorecard

Full metric table, sorted by volume

✈ Airline Insights

    Airport & Route Intelligence
    Congestion hotspots and the routes driving system-wide delay
    342 airports · 5,812 routes

    Top 15 Origin Airports by Volume

    Busiest departure hubs in the network

    Highest-Delay Airports

    Avg departure delay, airports with 500+ flights

    Top 15 Routes by Volume

    Highest-frequency origin–destination pairs

    Most Delayed Routes

    Avg arrival delay, routes with 200+ flights

    ◎ Airport & Route Insights

      Delay Cause Intelligence
      Decomposing delay-minutes into their five root causes
      8.13M attributed delay-minutes

      Delay-Minutes by Cause

      Total minutes attributed, all delayed flights

      Cause Share (%)

      Proportional contribution to total delay

      Pareto: Cumulative Contribution

      80/20 view — which causes drive the bulk of delay

      ◐ Cause Insights

      • Carrier Delay (37.3%) and Late Aircraft Delay (35.0%) together account for over 72% of all attributed delay-minutes — both are within airline operational control, not external factors.
      • NAS (National Airspace System) Delay contributes 18.0% — traffic control, weather-related airspace restrictions, and volume constraints outside any single carrier's control.
      • Weather Delay is only 9.6% directly attributed, but likely understates true weather impact since much of it cascades into Late Aircraft and NAS delay categories.
      • Security Delay is negligible (0.1%) and not a meaningful lever for improvement.
      • Executive takeaway: the single highest-leverage investment is turnaround efficiency (reduces Late Aircraft Delay) followed by crew/schedule buffer optimization (reduces Carrier Delay).
      Time Intelligence
      Congestion patterns across hour, day and distance
      Jan 2026 · hourly resolution

      Calendar Heatmap — Daily Delay Intensity

      Avg departure delay by day of month; darker = more delayed

      Flight Volume by Departure Time Block

      Scheduling density across the day

      Delay Rate by Distance Group

      Distance group 1 = shortest hops, 11 = longest hauls

      ◷ Time Insights

      • Peak congestion falls in the 1600–2000 departure blocks, where the highest flight density overlaps with the highest delay rate — a compounding risk window.
      • Short-haul, high-frequency routes (low distance group) show more schedule variability, as tighter turnarounds leave less buffer to absorb upstream delay.
      • Weekday-to-weekday delay variance is modest, reinforcing that time-of-day — not day-of-week — is the dominant scheduling lever.
      Operational Impact Dashboard
      Translating delay data into cost, capacity and resource impact
      Estimated operational cost model
      Total Delay Minutes
      8.69M
      Departure-side, Jan 2026
      Est. Aircraft-Hours Lost
      ~144,880
      Delay minutes ÷ 60
      Cancellation Impact
      25,635 flights
      ~4.7% of capacity pulled
      Diversion Impact
      1,146 flights
      Unplanned landings
      Avg Turnaround Tax
      28.2 min
      Taxi-out + taxi-in combined
      Gate Occupancy Proxy
      +13.1 min
      Avg dep delay extends gate hold

      Delay Waterfall — From Scheduled to Actual

      How on-time departures erode into arrival delay across the network

      Disruption Funnel

      Scheduled flights → completed → on-time

      Taxi Congestion — Out vs In

      Average minutes by phase; taxi-out is the dominant ground-delay contributor

      ⚙ Operational Insights

      • ~144,880 aircraft-hours were lost to delay in a single month — at typical utilization economics, this represents a substantial recoverable-efficiency opportunity.
      • Taxi-out (19.4 min) more than doubles taxi-in (8.8 min), pointing to gate-hold and runway-queue policies as a more actionable lever than arrival-side flow.
      • Cancellations removed 4.7% of scheduled capacity — at network scale this cascades into missed connections and downstream aircraft repositioning costs well beyond the cancelled flights themselves.
      • Recommendation: prioritize gate/ramp resourcing during the 1600–2000 window (Page 6) where congestion and delay both peak simultaneously.
      Predictive Flight Risk Score
      A weighted risk model classifying every flight before it departs
      Model validated against actual DEP_DEL15

      Risk Score Formula

      Business-rule weighted score (0–100), built from four historical reliability signals known before departure
      Risk Score  =  0.30 × Airline Historical Delay Rate
               + 0.30 × Route Historical Delay Rate
               + 0.25 × Departure-Hour Delay Rate
               + 0.15 × Day-of-Week Delay Rate   (×100)
      Low Risk
      Medium Risk
      High Risk
      Critical Risk

      Risk Bucket Distribution

      Flights classified into four risk tiers

      Model Validation — Predicted Risk vs Actual Delay Rate

      Actual observed delay rate (DEP_DEL15) within each predicted bucket

      Highest Risk-Score Flights (Sample)

      Top-scored flights this period and their actual outcome

      ◆ Predictive Insights

      • The model is well-calibrated: Critical-risk flights actually delayed 55.1% of the time vs just 4.2% for Low-risk flights — a 13x separation confirms the scoring logic captures real signal.
      • Most volume sits in Medium/High tiers, meaning most flights carry some baseline risk from route or airline history rather than being purely random events.
      • Operational use case: flag Critical/High risk flights automatically each morning for proactive passenger notification, extra ground crew staging, and gate-priority handling.
      • Next iteration: incorporate live METAR/TAF weather feeds and real-time upstream aircraft status to move from historical-pattern scoring to true same-day prediction.
      Executive Recommendations
      Prioritized actions derived from the analysis above
      10 recommendations
      1. Optimize schedules to cut Carrier DelayCarrier Delay is the largest controllable cause (37.3%). Rebuild block times for the routes and hours identified on Pages 2 & 6.
      2. Improve aircraft turnaround efficiencyLate Aircraft Delay (35.0%) cascades from earlier legs — tighter, monitored turnaround SLAs at hub airports directly reduce it.
      3. Increase staffing during peak departure windowsThe 1600–2000 block shows the highest simultaneous volume and delay rate (Pages 2 & 6) — resourcing should scale with it.
      4. Strengthen weather contingency planningCancellations ran at 4.7% this month; a dedicated winter-ops playbook would reduce reactive, last-minute cancellations.
      5. Prioritize high-risk routes for operational monitoringUse the Most-Delayed-Routes list (Page 4) to assign dedicated ops oversight to chronic underperformers.
      6. Optimize gate allocation to reduce taxi congestionTaxi-out (19.4 min) is more than double taxi-in (8.8 min) — gate/ramp sequencing is the highest-leverage ground-ops fix.
      7. Improve maintenance scheduling for frequently delayed aircraftCross-reference tail numbers with repeat Late Aircraft Delay incidents to target proactive maintenance windows.
      8. Deploy the Flight Risk Score operationallyThe validated model (Page 8) separates Critical (55% actual delay) from Low risk (4%) — use it to proactively notify passengers and stage ground crews.
      9. Monitor airport congestion in real timeReal-time dashboards at the highest-delay airports (Page 4) help catch cascading delay before it spreads network-wide.
      10. Track airline KPIs continuously, not just monthlyStanding up this dashboard as a live, refreshing Power BI report turns this one-time analysis into an ongoing decision-support tool.